A decision intelligence and judgement engine for high-stakes calls. We build living models of organizations, markets, and geopolitical systems — then stress-test them to surface the second- and third-order consequences others never reach.
Every claim grounded in evidence. Every assumption explicit. Every vulnerability surfaced before it becomes a headline.
Apply for private previewScenario Intelligence
Behind every decision is a chain of consequences most analysis never reaches. These reports trace the second- and third-order effects of real-world scenarios — who gains, who loses, and what breaks. Every claim grounded in evidence. Every assumption explicit.
These are a few examples of public domain scenarios. Imagine this depth of judgement intelligence applied to your portfolio and your what-ifs.
A finalized US–Iran ceasefire MOU is on the table: a 60-day pause, Iran clears its mines and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, the US lifts its naval blockade, and formal nuclear talks begin — but the enrichment freeze is short and verification is unproven. Sign it as written, counter for tighter terms, delay, or refuse?
The decision is Trump’s, but the outcome is mostly not: Israel, Iran, and the congressional hawks drive nearly every branch as chance events he cannot dictate. The deepest danger recurs across almost every path — Israel striking Lebanon to blow up the pause, or Iran quietly reneging on the mines and enrichment. Even the best move averages slightly below zero, making this an upside-seeking bet rather than a safe one.
Trump follows through on the threat to destroy Iran’s power grids, water treatment, telecommunications, ports, and refineries if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by April 7, 2026.
Iran has kept Hormuz closed as its last leverage tool, blocking 20% of global oil supply. Opening it means surrendering; not opening it means infrastructure destruction. A coercion trap with no face-saving exit — cascading across energy, food, nuclear proliferation, and alliance stability simultaneously.
Layoffs keep happening, people lose jobs to automation and AI, and employers cannot afford health insurance for employees — what happens to the insurance system?
AI-driven displacement is eroding employer-sponsored insurance faster than any consensus transition mechanism can absorb. The dual-front MCR trap puts the largest carriers simultaneously vulnerable on commercial and government books — with 5–6 BCBS licensees at risk of breaching solvency thresholds in the same window.
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How the judgement engine works
Public and proprietary signals — filings, job postings, leadership moves, earnings calls, competitive actions — continuously collected and structured into a unified evidence base.
A structured model of the organization is built: who does what, how things connect, what’s changing, and why — with every inference grounded in evidence and rated by confidence.
Competing AI perspectives run scenarios against the world model — probing weak points, tracing second- and third-order effects, and stress-testing strategic assumptions.
Decision-grade intelligence, grounded in evidence and simulation. Every inference is cited. Confidence is explicit. Judgment that compounds over time.
Use cases
Build a structured view of the target from public signals before your analysts see the data room. Surface hiring red flags, competitive exposure, and structural weaknesses early.
Run macro shocks, leadership changes, or competitor moves against a full company model. See second-order effects before the market prices them.
What happens if a competitor acquires, launches, or loses? Map cascade effects across your portfolio before they land.
Model jurisdictions, agencies, and programs as interconnected systems. Simulate budget cuts, regulatory changes, and political transitions.
Test strategic assumptions against a full organizational model. Competing perspectives probe every weak point before you commit capital.
Track internal dynamics from public signals: hiring patterns, org changes, and leadership moves as leading indicators of execution risk.
Apply for private preview
You've seen our public scenarios. Now imagine this depth of analysis applied to your portfolio, your market, your next decision. Carapace is in private preview — whether you have a specific use case or you're exploring, we'd like to hear from you.