Scenario Intelligence
Behind every decision is a chain of consequences most analysis never reaches. These scenario reports trace the second- and third-order effects — who gains, who loses, and what breaks — grounded in evidence, not opinion.
This is the judgement engine in action: we construct structured models of the actors, incentives, and constraints involved — then stress-test them from every angle. Every claim is cited. Every assumption is explicit. Every scenario tree is explorable.
These are our public scenarios. Imagine this for your organization, your what-ifs.
Scenario Intelligence
A finalized US–Iran ceasefire MOU is on the table: a 60-day pause, Iran clears its mines and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, the US lifts its naval blockade, and formal nuclear talks begin — but the enrichment freeze is short and verification is unproven. Sign it as written, counter for tighter terms, delay, or refuse?
The decision is Trump’s, but the outcome is mostly not: Israel, Iran, and the congressional hawks drive nearly every branch as chance events he cannot dictate. The deepest danger recurs across almost every path — Israel striking Lebanon to blow up the pause, or Iran quietly reneging on the mines and enrichment. Even the best move averages slightly below zero, making this an upside-seeking bet rather than a safe one.
Trump follows through on the threat to destroy Iran’s power grids, water treatment, telecommunications, ports, and refineries if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by April 7, 2026.
Iran has kept Hormuz closed as its last leverage tool, blocking 20% of global oil supply. Opening it means surrendering; not opening it means infrastructure destruction. A coercion trap with no face-saving exit — cascading across energy, food, nuclear proliferation, and alliance stability simultaneously.
Layoffs keep happening, people lose jobs to automation and AI, and employers cannot afford health insurance for employees — what happens to the insurance system?
AI-driven displacement is eroding employer-sponsored insurance faster than any consensus transition mechanism can absorb. The dual-front MCR trap puts the largest carriers simultaneously vulnerable on commercial and government books — with 5–6 BCBS licensees at risk of breaching solvency thresholds in the same window.
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You've seen our public scenarios. Now imagine this depth of analysis applied to your portfolio, your market, your next decision. Carapace is in private preview — whether you have a specific use case or you're exploring, we'd like to hear from you.