Carapace Intelligence

Scenario Intelligence

What happens
next?

Behind every decision is a chain of consequences most analysis never reaches. These scenario reports trace the second- and third-order effects — who gains, who loses, and what breaks — grounded in evidence, not opinion.

This is judgment intelligence: we construct structured models of the actors, incentives, and constraints involved — then stress-test them from every angle. Every claim is cited. Every assumption is explicit. Every scenario tree is explorable.

These are our public scenarios. Imagine this for your organization, your what-ifs.

Scenario Intelligence

All Reports.

US Health Insurance Industry · Policy Scenario

What if: AI layoffs erode employer-sponsored insurance for 160M Americans?

  • The coverage gap is 20–30M functionally uninsured — not 10–15M — when underinsurance is included.
  • Top-5 carrier weighted MCR at 88.6%, only 70bps from cross-subsidy failure threshold.
  • BCBS licensees face $930M+ combined losses; 5–6 may breach solvency thresholds simultaneously.
April 4, 2026 Read the analysis →

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What would judgment
intelligence do for you?

You've seen our public scenarios. Now imagine this depth of analysis applied to your portfolio, your market, your next decision. Carapace is in private preview — whether you have a specific use case or you're exploring, we'd like to hear from you.

Thank you — we'll be in touch.